Unusual purchasing behavior during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic: The stimulus-organism-response approach

During the COVID-19 pandemic, unusual consumer behavior, such as hoarding toilet paper, was reported globally. We investigated this behavior when fears of consumer market disruptions started circulating, to capture human behavior in this unique situation. Based on the stimulus-organism-response (S-O-R) framework, we propose a structural model connecting exposure to online information sources (environmental stimuli) to two behavioral responses: unusual purchases and voluntary self-isolation. To test the proposed model, we collected data from 211 Finnish respondents via an online survey, and carried out analysis using PLS-SEM. We found a strong link between self-intention to self-isolate and intention to make unusual purchases, providing empirical evidence that the reported consumer behavior was directly linked to anticipated time spent in self-isolation. The results further revealed exposure to online information sources led to increased information overload and cyberchondria. Information overload was also a strong predictor of cyberchondria. Perceived severity of the situation and cyberchondria had significant impacts on people's intention to make unusual purchases and voluntarily self-isolate. Future research is needed to confirm the long-term effects of the pandemic on consumer and retail services.     

Information,market power,and price volatility

We consider demand function competition with a finite number of agents and private information. We show that any degree of market power can arise in the unique equilibrium under an information structure that is arbitrarily close to complete information. Regardless of the number of agents and the correlation of payoff shocks, market power may be arbitrarily close to zero (the competitive outcome) or arbitrarily large (so there is no trade). By contrast, price volatility is always lower than the variance of the aggregate shock across all information structures. Alternative trading mechanisms lead to very distinct bounds as a comparison with Cournot competition establishes.     

数字地面模型新进展：TIN2.0、3D表面 塑型线和自由形态建模工具

竖向设计是人类在景观中进行的基本活动。人类对 室外空间的任何干预都涉及对地表形态的设计。在过去的几十 年中，数字设计的发展不仅改变了表现的方法，而且改变了设 计的过程。就地形建模而言，该技术实现了三维可视化和任务 自动化，例如土方计算和自动产生横截面。但在重点考察最新 的建筑信息模型(BIM)如何应用和实施这项技术时，不难发现 地形建模过程并没有充分利用技术带来的潜在优势。实际上， 三维建模工具、基于组件的建模和分析、设计验证，以及协同 设计是可以集成到数字地面模型中的。识别了现有数字建模解 决方案中的主要缺陷并为其进一步发展提供机会，提出了一 项整合性的数字地面模型建模过程，该过程引入了TIN2.0曲 面，对现有的TIN曲面进行了升级，允许在同一曲面中同时存 在规则三角网和不规则三角网，并开发了一套基于三维线和自 由形态设计工具的建模工具，推动风景园林信息模型框架的发 展以满足风景园林师及其他专业人士，如建筑师和土木工程师 进行地形建模的需求。通过案例研究对提出的建模过程进行了 测试和验证。结果表明，生成的数字曲面具有较高精度，可以 具象地表现地形，允许设计过程在三维线或自由形态设计工具 的基础上进行。所有地形建模均在三维数字模型上进行     

The price discovery role of day traders in futures market: Evidence from different types of day traders

Using proprietary account-level transaction data in the futures market where day traders are self-declared ex ante, this study investigates whether day traders enhance price discovery at the market level. From a natural classification of day traders, we find that heterogeneous day traders have differential effects on price discovery. Self-declared day traders, who benefit from low margin requirement, do not improve price discovery measured by information share. In contrast, non-declared traders, who are not self-declared as day traders, improve price discovery. Their positive impacts on price discovery are particularly significant during periods of high volatility and arrival of new information. Overall, a margin stimulating policy may encourage more day trading, but may also attract overconfident investors, especially inexperienced ones, and who do not enhance price discovery.     

Information transmission between large shareholders and stock volatility

Does information transmission between large shareholders exacerbate stock volatility or reduce stock volatility? In this study, based on the common shareholding data in the Chinese stock market from 2007 to 2017, we establish the shareholder’s coshareholding network, and use the weighted network clustering coefficient to measure the information transmission speed. Moreover, we investigate the impact of information transmission speed on stock volatility. The empirical results show that a nonlinear U-shaped relationship exists between information transmission speed and stock volatility. The findings are robust to the inclusion of other determinants of stock volatility identified in the literature. Finally, we verify the existence of private information interaction in the coshareholding network.     

Economic policy uncertainty and analysts’ forecast characteristics

We examine the influence of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the characteristics of analysts’ earnings forecasts over a thirty-year period, spanning a wide variety of political and economic conditions. Motivated by both theory and empirical evidence that suggest a decline in the quality of the information environment for firms as EPU increases, we establish that analysts’ forecast errors increase with EPU, as does the degree of forecast dispersion. Increased error and dispersion persist after controlling for several competing sources of economy-wide uncertainty. Cross sectional analysis exploring heterogeneity in forecast quality across both analyst and firm characteristics establishes that forecast error and dispersion increase with EPU across a broad spectrum of firms and levels of analyst expertise. We control for analysts’ experience overall and the years spent covering a particular industry and firm. Five alternative methods for classifying firms as policy sensitive versus policy neutral provide consistent evidence that analyst forecast errors and dispersion increase with EPU, even for firms not deemed to be particularly sensitive to policy.     

信息不对称、过度自信与股价变动

信息传导的非同步和投资者情绪变化是股票市场的两个典型特征,前者会引发投资者之间出现信息不对称问题,后者主要体现为投资者过度自信,两者共同作用影响股票价格变动。本文将信息不对称和投资者过度自信情绪置于同一个分析框架,建立两阶段动态序贯定价理论模型研究现实市场上信息传导过程中股价变动的内在机制。结果表明:(1)面临新信息的进入,投资者对股票收益预期的调整与均衡价格之间具有正相关关系;(2)面临有利消息时,过度自信投资者比例越大,股票的均衡价格越高,投资收益将越低;面临不利消息时则相反;(3)随着过度自信投资者比例以及过度自信程度升高,市场风险溢价将下降;(4)投资者群体在信息传导过程中出现分化,对股价变动形成异质信念,未获取信息和获取信息但未出现过度自信的投资者认为股价被高估,获取信息且出现过度自信的投资者认为价格被低估,促使更多的交易,引发市场成交量和股价变动;(5)过度自信投资者比例与过度自信程度提高均会对市场效率产生正向影响,而对市场深度具有负向效应。最后,基于理论结果对非对称性和持续性等典型的市场波动性特征进行解释。     

Balancing risk with virtual private networking during a pandemic

When the pandemic struck and teaching went online worldwide, universities had to make pressing decisions that balanced cybersecurity against other factors, including health and safety, usability, and cost. One such challenge Indiana University (IU) faced was how to accommodate the secure telecommunications needs of 130,000 faculty, staff, and students who would now be teaching, learning, doing research, and working from home. Some universities reflexively promoted virtual private network (VPN) use for all activities. Such an approach would have been unsustainable at IU, however, owing both to the licenses and resources needed for the sheer number of users and to the high-throughput applications on which they rely. Perhaps even worse, it would have increased the chances that the VPN would be unavailable during a critical incident or other situation in which secure communications must be guaranteed. Instead, IU launched an awareness campaign demonstrating exactly when VPN use is and isn’t needed. In addition, network staff employed a VPN feature called split tunneling to reduce the load. This article discusses the advantages and disadvantages of this approach and how IU made the decision to balance both sides of the risk equation to ensure the continued advancement of its mission throughout the pandemic.     

A picture is worth a thousand words: The role of a cover photograph on a travel agency’s online identity

Online travel agencies (OTAs) allow lodging businesses to select one cover photograph to represent itself on the OTA site. The cover photograph plays a crucial role for attracting customers’ attention from among alternatives, and lure viewers to view the webpage with detailed information. The present study investigates how the content of a business’ cover photograph on OTAs’ sites influences customers’ behavior when searching for information. The content of a cover photograph may fall within five categories according to attributes: façade, type of place, room amenities, scenery, and property amenities. Only façade and property amenities have positive impacts on customers’ viewing times of the webpages with the detailed information of businesses. In contrast, scenery has a negative influence on customers’ viewing times. The results of the study contribute, theoretically and methodologically, to OTAs’ knowledge base and can assist practitioners’ identification of effective cover photographs.     

Information flow between prediction markets,polls and media: Evidence from the 2008 presidential primaries

Are the forecast errors of election-eve polls themselves forecastable? We present evidence from the 2008 Democratic Party nomination race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton showing that the answer is yes. Both cross-sectional and time series evidence suggests that market prices contain information about election outcomes that polls taken shortly before the contests do not. Conversely, election surprises relative to polls too Granger cause subsequent price movements. We then investigate whether the additional information in prices could come from the media coverage of these campaigns, and uncover a set of complex relationships between pollster’s surprise, price movements, and various aspects of media coverage. Prices anticipate the balance and content of media coverage, but not the volume. On the other hand, it is the volume of media coverage, not the balance or content, that anticipates the surprise element in election outcomes. Moreover, Granger causality between prices and election surprises barely changes after controlling for media coverage, and causality from media volume to surprises persists too after controlling for price movements. Taken together, the results suggest that both prices and the volume of media coverage contain independent election-relevant information that is not captured in polls.